Covid 19 : *A Strategy for avoiding harsh National Lockdowns and bringing the nation Back to Work : by Dr C. Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants, Gwynedd, Bangor, Wales, January 2021. Appended July 2021 since announcement of July 19^th ‘Freedom Day’

* Given as an unsolicited submission to both Welsh and Westminster Governments. Acknowledged once by Welsh Government and sent to a transport minister ( goodness knows why) . No acknowledgments received from Westminster.

** I also wish it to be known that my views on the vaccine are not the same presently as when this item was first drafted. The large number of reported vaccine injuries and significant number of deaths together with numerous peer reviewed papers discussing potential mid- and long-term effects have left me with substantial doubts.

I have placed a comprehensive list of peer reviewed references at the end of this article which can also act as an unbiased starting point for anyone researching COVID 19 or needing more information on COVID vaccine risks.

Background

Covid 19 was initially defined as a highly infectious lower respiratory virus first identified in 2019[1]. More recently it has been re-defined as much a virus of the circulatory system[ 2]or a multi-system disorder[3]. It is known for certain to have been in the UK since February 2020 but quite probably there were localised pockets as early as November 2019. The origin of Covid 19 is stated by some to have been Wuhan China but this is by no means certain[1]. There have been over 100 mutant strains of the virus found in different regions of the World. The virus (spike protein) exploits the ACE2 binding site in human pathology making the elderly, some BAME groups and those with metabolic syndrome especially vulnerable. While the virus is relatively harmless to most of the population and some may even be totally asymptomatic or possess T-cell cross immunity others do less well and have a severe respiratory distress crisis and/or cytokine storm. There is also a small percentage of victims who develop a long-term post viral fatigue syndrome known as ‘long COVID’. The main problem with the virus is that if the replication rate is allowed to rise too high then available hospital capacity can easily be swallowed up.

Present UK Government Strategy

The initial UK strategy was going to be to try and allow the development of herd immunity rather as Sweden attempted. It soon become evident, however, that the NHS would saturate long before this point was reached. This has to do with the average incubation period to symptoms being much shorter than the average period to requirement of hospitalisation.

Thus, the UK Strategy soon shifted in an attempt to avoid too many XS deaths and protect the NHS from over-saturations to one of trying to contain this virus by multiple local and Nationwide ‘lock-downs’. It was stated that this would also allow time for accelerated vaccine development. Moreover, many of the public, including initially myself, were horrified at the pictures coming out of China apparently showing healthy persons one minute walking along the street and the next collapsing and dying. Despite the nastiness of this disease for a minority it is evident at least to me this was likely propaganda designed to damage the West. Unfortunately, certain members of the SAGE group built on this and used terrible and adverse psychology to control and subdue the British public with their very own ‘project fear’. I will show that this type of strategy was wrong.

The first UK lockdown in 2020 appeared to produce a large degree of success but in hindsight one could point to the seasonality of this virus[4] as in common with other cold and flu viruses as to a more natural reason for its summer decline.

The UK strategy has cost UK PLC dearly in economic terms. Some estimates suggest there is the potential to lose a staggering 29% of GDP if this type of alternating lock-down cycle were to continue much longer. Most countries have already lost 10-15% GDP [5]. Not only has COVID been a tragedy at governmental level but also for many involved at a personal level. There are few in our nation who have not been touched by this in some way. The danger is however, we are losing touch with the nation and their needs and aspirations. Focus has only been on deaths because of COVID while in harsh reality is there is little difference between the median age for a COVID death and those of the elderly age group in general [6]. Moreover, the great majority of those which have succumbed to this virus have been clinically obese [7] or have had one or more underlying health condition[8]. Many of which are effectively self- inflicted conditions reflective of unhealthy living and lack of exercise. The message here is stark: in future Britain needs to focus on healthy living, nutrition, diet, and lifestyle.

What we must not do is lose sight of the fact that we are bankrupting our nation and a large body of ordinary people and businesses within. Moreover, there are as many deaths, potentially very many more, occurring due to factors such as suicide [9] and undiagnosed cancer, especially breast and lung cancer, where people have been unable to access adequate healthcare during the pandemic [10].

One potential saving grace is we now have the roll-out of several vaccines, two of which have already been licensed for emergency UK use. We must bear in mind however, that they remain essentially ‘experimental injectable compounds’ [11] without any long or even mid-term track record.

What is needed badly now is a new containment strategy that will allow effective use of the vaccine and to get this nation back to work and back on its feet. I do not believe further Nationwide lockdowns which are crippling businesses and National Morale are the correct path here. Thus, the below proposes an alternative strategy.

Alternative strategy for containment of COVID 19 and vaccine distribution.

At present 100% of our nation is being at the very least inconvenienced and at most families, lives and livelihoods are being lost both to the is virus and because of the Government and development of the Government’s handling of the situation.

The strategy I propose is sincerely development in attempt to try and improve on what has so far evolved and is broken down into 5 sections:

Section 1: Household Risk categorisation, lock-down/shielding, working, schooling, and shopping arrangements.

Section 2: Exercise and transportation arrangements

Section 3: Vaccine arrangements

Section 4: Nutritional Support

Section 5: Business Opportunities and safety precautions for shops etc.

Section 6. Cross-immunity ( appended at 06/07/2021)

Section 7. Vaccine Worries ( appended at 06/07/2021)

In more detail:

Section 1 : Household Risk Categorization

a) At present only risk categorisation is for shielding. In this new scheme, all households to be given a ‘risk’ categorisation (1-4) where 1 =very low and 4 = critically high. Based on the risk factor of the most vulnerable person living in said household. Especially important given that there are 1.8 million 2 adult generational households in UK and over .5 million 3 or more adult generation households many of which in high risk BAME group.

b) All members of said household will be treated as though they were the highest risk member from the perspective of work, schooling , shopping and socialisation. The responsibility thus becomes personal and directly ‘family’ driven for the protection of one’s parents, grandparents, spouse, siblings etc. rather than directly dictated by Government.

c) Said ‘household risk’ determines overall entire household’s activities. This means that out of approaching 30 Million UK households some 60-70 % will be able to function absolutely as normal with the exception of visiting and socialising with friends or relatives in a higher risk household than their own. This level will also allow all schools and businesses to operate as close to normally as possible with no closures at all.

Risk categorisation in more detail

1.Low vulnerability: Function as normal in all walks of life e.g. work/school but do not mix with groups of higher vulnerability. There will be 4/7 shopping days per week set aside for this group and all shops will be allowed to open.

2. Moderate vulnerability. 2/7 designated shopping days. If of working age, then work from home if possible. If not possible compensation will be paid to employer ( Furlough) . Can socialise with friends relatives of same group but not higher and lower group. Children may attend school at family discretion.

3. High vulnerability – 1/7 designated shopping days similar to (2) above but the preferably least vulnerable member of said household is to obtain shopping on this day. Work as at (2) above. Children to be given on-line lessons. Furlough if cannot work from home. Do not socialise with higher or lower groups.

4. Critically High Vulnerability - As at (3) above but state and/or volunteers/non-live- in relatives to obtain shopping or online shopping. I.E similar to present ‘shielding group’ . No socialisation except with carers or family in outdoor or PPE. Online schooling.

Section 2 Exercise and Transportation

Gyms open for Group 1 and can run special Group 2 only sessions, provided adequate disinfection in-between.

There are to be NO limits whatsoever on outdoor exercise in any of the groups but those in critical group 4 to pay extra careful attention to distancing especially from runners and cyclists and to be discourage from exercising in busy streets or at busy times.

All parks and outdoor spaces MUST be allowed to stay open, including beauty spots. Car transportation for exercise within resident’s own county to be allowed PROVIDED local A+E hospital ICU is not close to saturation.

For avoidance of doubt all solitary outdoor pastimes and sports such as fishing, amateur radio and golf must also be allowed.

Groups 3 and 4 to avoid standard public transportation. ‘Vulnerable only’ bus routes and times are a possibility.

Section 3: Vaccine arrangements

1. Most of the multi-generational households identified above will also have at least one family member in Group 3 or 4. It is imperative that these family members are vaccinated first thereby quickly lowering the overall risk factor and releasing more people quickly back into the workforce.

2. Elderly over 70 and all identified with metabolic syndrome i.e., about 30% of over 50’s. Vaccine should not be wasted on individuals of a particular age group if they are not themselves in groups (3) or (4) above.

3. In line with present NHS staff to be vaccinated but also Police Force, schoolteachers, people who have close public interface and school children (from vulnerable households only) also to be vaccinated.

Section 4: Nutritional Support

It has been identified that poor nutritional status especially with regard to certain vitamins and nutrients worsens outcome in COVID 19 [12].

Vitamins and minerals known to be of use are especially D3, but also C, A+K, zinc and selenium[13] . Vitamin D3 supplementation has been shown to aid COVID recovery [14]. Vitamin K also has a crucial role [15]. Nationwide supplementation should be made available.

Section 5a): Safety and Business Opportunities

There are opportunities to make our shops and businesses safer for example but not limited to use of

1. Automatic overnight disinfection spray and/or UVC lighting systems.

2. Incorporate UVC lighting into fridges/freezers/air conditioning units etc.

3. Installation of I/R temperature monitors at shop entrances and the like.

4. Business opportunities for creating mask disinfection systems.

5. Business opportunities for creating shopping disinfection systems.

6. Business opportunities for creating cold plasma hand disinfection systems.

7. Business opportunities for creating UVC nose and/or mouth disinfection systems.

8. Opportunities exist for HVAC companies to produce air flow equipment ( including U/V +/or chemical disinfection).

9. Opportunities exist for CO2 monitoring manual or auto -control systems for airflow.

10. Opportunities exist for the monitoring of other cold and influenza viruses by lateral flow testing at large events, large schools, large employers etc. in addition to COVID. Such opportunities could be sold also under umbrella of ‘protect NHS’ from overload and/or keep Britain working and have less people off sick from school/employment in wintertime.

11. Opportunities exist for the development of home T-CELL testing systems to monitor longer term immunity.

12. Opportunities exist for vendors of natural products to create ‘antiviral mixes’.

13. Opportunities exist for manufacturers of vitamin pills to create ‘high immunity’ pills.

14. Opportunities exist to exploit hitherto unexploited pharmaceutical and veterinary medications with known antiviral properties such as for example, but not limited to Ivermectin and HCQ.

Section 5 nos. 8-14 appended July 2021. Opportunity 4 will be voided as soon as ‘Freedom Day occurs’. Specific Shopping Day proposals will also end on Freedom Day.

Section 5b) Post-pandemic opportunities

Because it is impossible to totally become virus free there will always be an endemic viral pool, however small, which will be expected to behave more or less in line with other typical, seasonal respiratory viruses. Thus, the above opportunities 1-3 and 5-14 will be expected to be available and ongoing. Moreover, there will be expected to be additional opportunities in online business and sports and exercise. The former including sales, commerce and education especially of and for nervous individuals or individuals in high-risk categories.

The latter including gymnasia, spas, swimming pools, physical training instructors, whole food producers, health food industry etc. and endorsed by health service, exercise prescription etc.

During the pandemic many GP surgeries have become transformed with a big increase in electronic consultations. There could be some continued opportunity for telemedicine with development of smart phone apps and sensors for all kinds of medical, physical and intimate examination.

Section 6: Cross- Immunity

It has come to light that there are at least 2 common cold viruses namely Rhino-virus [16], OC43 and NL63 [17] confer protection and/or cross immunity to COVID 19. Thus, it makes great sense for all less vulnerable groups to be able to mix and socialise normally to acquire and exchange such viruses. This will boost and maintain natural immunity. If lockdowns persist, we are in danger of breeding a generation of children without any such natural immunity. There is also evidence to suggest some animal coronaviruses may confer cross -immunity also. For example, pet cat and dog owners [18]and farmers have been shown to exhibit milder COVID symptoms possibly from Bovine Corona virus cross-immunity [19] than the public as a whole but in the case of the latter outdoor life and increased physical activity may also be an advantageous factor.

Section 7: Vaccine worries

The two vaccines presently in use in the UK are essentially ‘experimental injectables’. Indeed, they do not even fulfil the Cambridge Dictionary definition of a vaccine per se. Although some dictionaries have been amended to encompass these new ‘vaccine’ technologies. There have now emerged several peer reviewed publications outlining actual and potential future dangers of the vaccines.

In the short term it is apparent that the magnitude of vaccine adverse reactions including blood clots [19] and death to both the messenger RNA ‘vaccine’ and the modified monkey adenovirus vector vaccine is many, many times greater than any other vaccine in history. The news media speak of long covid because of COVID spike protein toxicity. This is the very same spike protein that the vaccines encourage the body to produce in their trillions. My fear is the emergence of a ‘parallel’ ‘Long vaccine’ syndrome. Further, with the m-RNA vaccine the risk of degradation and/or protein misfolding has the potential to cause prion disease [20]. Moreover, with both vaccines there exists the risk of antibody dependent immune enhancement and actual increased sensitivity to COVID disease [21] and auto-immune problems[22]. Penultimately , with the viral vector vaccines there exists the risk of DNA assimilation into other already present pathogens in the body forming new spike [23] or virus variants or completely new virus families [20]. Finally, there exists as with any vaccine, the risk of vaccine escape. We must remember that RNA corona viruses are relatively fast mutating viruses as seen by the great variation in effects of circulating colds and the fact that it has hitherto been impossible to create a ‘common cold’ vaccine.

I hope I am proved incorrect on the above, but these are my fears and those of several who are far more qualified to comment upon vaccination and virology than myself.

Conclusion

I sincerely believe the above represents a better strategy for control of COVID 19 than we have now and a formula for getting our once great nation going again. These proposals obviously have a degree of flexibility and some elements of which could continue ( including business opportunities) after Freedom Day and some elements of which could be re-instated if for example a virulent new variant were to develop because of vaccine escape.

References

1. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2319417020300871

2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jon.12770

3. https://bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-0912(20)30459-1/abstract

4. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121001687

5. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3557504

6. https://agsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jgs.16894

7. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wmh3.361

8. https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1198.long

9. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4095.short

10. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470204520303880

11. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15265161.2020.1763696