Some
very short comments on the relationship between the Sun’s newly discovered
magnetic year, Earth’s climate and Planetary beat hypothesis, by
Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants. E-mail manager
@ bsec-wales.co.uk Released into Public
Domain without full reference list April 15th 2015.
Abstract
Planetary beat hypothesis and Solar
Fourier Domain analysis are very briefly reviewed . McIntosh’s theory of solar magnetic banding is
introduced. A new hypothesis linking the two on the basis of sun- earth system long timescale
resonance is proposed and tested.
Planetary cycles in solar magnetic effect and hence climate are predicted, evidence of which is
found using completely separate
methodologies such as satellite observation; sunspot observation; radio-isotope
studies and planetary beat. The values
fit very well with hind-cast warm and cold periods going back to the dark ages cold period. The prediction is that while we are still
overall within the modern warm period there could well be a Dalton like minimum
in the period 2025-2046 accentuated by modern aviation and ship transport either cancelling out some or all of modern
warming yet with the possibility that
some solar warming resumes again until circa 2180.
Introduction
Ever since the discovery
of the famous ‘hockey stick’ effect in the plot of recent global temperatures
there has been, in some quarters, and almost climate hysteria with fears of
‘runaway’ global warming. Indeed the worst
case IPCC estimates are some +4C of global warming by the year 2100 [1].
However, with the advent
of the new planetary beat hypothesis of
global climate change which basically suggests that harmonic gravitational
influences of the planets in the solar system can influence the sun( possibly
its corona) , solar output, irradiance
and/or magnetic behaviour see for
example Morener (2013)[2] and Scafetta (2012) and ( 2013) and (2014) (a) [3] and
(b) [4]
some potentially very different conclusions can be reached about earth’s future
climate, in that a potentially Dalton like minimum is predicted for circa
2040.
Part of the criticisms of
solar beat hypotheses have been can such tiny planetary gravitational effects
sufficiently influence the sun. Further,
it is easy to extract harmonic series from any aspect of solar behaviour
using Fourier Domain Techniques but how real are their meanings.
Very recently indeed, it
has been revealed that the sun has its own approximately 330 day ‘year’ with
respect to the movement of its magnetic bands, see McIntosh et al 2015 [5].
A further explanation of
McIntosh’s Quasi-periodic variability of solar magnetism
is that magnetic fields on smaller spatial scales than
coronal holes and sunspots display similar periodicities to their larger
brethren throughout the solar cycle. The
evolution in number density of their magnetic elements which are
associated with the vertices of the giant convective scale. This convective
scale is driven by the rotation of the deep radiative interior, and these so called
‘g-nodes are believed to be anchored close to the bottom of the convection
zone’s boundary with the radiative interior. The number of g-nodes in each
hemisphere waxes and wanes over the course of solar cycle 23, in addition to
being strongly variable over shorter timescales. g-Node
densities also display a varying phase offset between the two solar
hemispheres. The Fourier power spectra of the hemispheric g-node density and
(daily) sunspot time series have very similar characteristic timescales as
indicated by the grey-shaded regions in the figure. The short-period (higher
frequency) envelope peak of 11–16 days is approximately one half of the
rotational period (24–35 days). This indicates that magnetic patterns do not
diffuse immediately on the Sun’s surface. The slight offset between peaks in
the low- (28 days) and high-latitude (30 days) period is consistent with an
observed solar differential rotation.
Most importantly, McIntosh
observers a broad peak centred around
330 days is common to all of their time series which appears to be the primary
(quasi-)periodicity of the magnetic surges that shape the heliosphere and drive
the host of energetic phenomena observed as described above. Wavelet analyses of
these time series demonstrated that peaks occur with a 99% confidence level.
Hypothesis
Since the solar magnetic
year and earth year length do not coincide exactly, it is proposed that maybe
the solar magnetic effect on the earth would only maximise climatically
330x365.25 days i.e. once every 330 years or so and at other times would have
lesser effect. Since the 330 day period
would appear to be the time for magnetic bands to travel the entire solar pole
to pole distance I would expect there may be hemispheric effects and harmonic
multiple effects as well of circa 165 ( 1st
sub-harmonic) and 990 days ( third
harmonic) which following my
original hypothesis would turn into
sun-earth synchronisation periods of 165 and 990 years.
Long prior to McIntosh,
Lean and Brueckner(1993) [6] have observed a 155 day and a 323 day periodicity in sunspot
in occurrence rate of solar flares and in sunspot blocking function.
Delache
et al have observed long period oscillations in solar diameter measurements of
the order of 1000 days (2.7 years) which I feel may be synchronous with the
third harmonic described above.
Finally Richardson et al
(1994)[7] point out that The IMP-8 and Voyager 2 spacecraft have recently
detected a very strong modulation in the solar wind speed with an approximately
1.3 year period. Combined with evidence from long-term aurora and magnetometer
studies, this suggests that fundamental changes in the Sun occur on a roughly
1.3 year time scale. This appears to be
roughly half of the above period and so
may be related. Translated into a
sun-earth system resonance this would be equal to 474 years. 155+323 = 478 years which is remarkably close.
The next part of my
hypothesis is to suggest that there ought to be hind cast major climatic
disturbances with periodicities associated with the above and further that in
the grand scheme of things which is our Solar system, there may be
synchronisation with the planetary beat effects described by Morener and Scafetta. The period of 30 days is also interesting
for this suggests a resonance every 30 years following a similar argument.
Analysis
Looking at the work of Scafetta in particular there are planetary beats at 30, 61,
115,130,150 and 983 years approximately.
I propose that the beat of Scafetta at 30 years will
probably be synchronised with the 30 year period as described above. I further
propose that the 150 year beat of Scafetta may be
either the fifth harmonic of the 30 year
process or the 1st sub harmonic
of the approximately 165 year process and I further propose that the 983
year period may be the third harmonic of the 330 year process. Neptune has an orbital period of 165 years
which could be relevant here. Saturn has an orbital period of 29.5 years.
983/3 = 327.666 which is remarkably close within .7% to
the 330 observed and is also very close
to the 323 day periodicity in sunspot in occurrence rate of solar flares
and in sunspot blocking function of Lean
and Brueckner [8,9].
Further,
others too have noted periodic behaviour in the solar cycle some of which fits with Scafetta’s
theoretical values for example Peristykh and Damon
(2003) [10] using a completely
different approach using cosmogenic isotopes and giving evidence of around 12,000 years
persistence of the 88 year Gleissberg cycle also note confirmation of the 208 year Suess cycle, a 104 year cycle and additional peaks at 150 and 61 years. The 61 year peak aligns exactly with one of Scafetta’s planetary beats as does the 150 year. They further note a much longer quasi-
period process with a timescale of the order of 2000 years.
I have made a search for
major climatic events in association with the periods defined above, it would
seem to me that the 330 years period and its harmonic seems to feature very heavily
in retrospective or hind cast climatic patterns. For example, there are approximately 330
years from the centre of the Roman warm period to the centre of the Dark ages
cold period and likewise roughly another 330 years to the centre of the
medieval warm period. There always seems
to be circa 1000 years between the centres of very significant cold periods as
far back as even the Bronze Age Cold Epoch, and similarly for warm periods. The length of the Medieval
warm period is usually given as between 300-400 years and NASA defines the
length of the Little Ice Age as 300 years.
Then there are two such
periods (660 years approx.) to the centre of the Little Ice Age (Maunder
minimum). Then the 165 year period takes
us to the centre of the Dalton Minimum.
Then another 165 years
takes us to 1995 possibly the hottest part of the present warm period we have
known so far. However it is possible
based on the above and taking, as many do, the start of the modern warming
period to be circa 1850, although potentially the hottest part of our present
warm period may not be reached until circa 2180.
Brief
Prediction
My present prediction, nevertheless,
would be that if Scafetta’s shorter cycles are
superimposed on recent global temperature change, then the period 2025-2046 has the potential to be
much colder before potentially solar warming resumes again. Certainly sunspot
numbers and Solar Ap values have been falling like a
stone recently and a similar process was seen just prior to the Dalton minimum,
see also Ahluwalai and Ygbbunhay
(2012) [11] and current trends in
Air Traffic and Global Shipping may even
accentuate the cooling, see Barnes
(2013) [12].
Sea temperatures around
the world have been up to a degree colder in the little Ice Age. Recently I have published a paper suggesting
that at current
rates that warming solar plus anthropogenic ( at least in North Wales) will
only be +1.09 C by 2099 (Barnes 2015) [13] which is well at the lower end of the IPCC
predictions scale assuming all anthropogenic warming so my best guess is the Dalton like process
and any anthropogenic warming will cancel out over the forthcoming few decades and
global temperatures may remain roughly static.
Conclusions
It would appear that the
brief hypothesis I advanced here has been supported. Planetary cycles in solar magnetic effect and
hence climate are predicted, evidence of which is also found using completely
separate and independent methodologies
such as satellite observation; sunspot observation; radio-isotope studies and
planetary beat.
References
1.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/the-new-ipcc-climate-report/
2.
http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/107/2013/prp-1-107-2013.pdf
3.
http://www.yave-yavo.org/scien/cosm/Files/%28601%29%201405.0193.pdf
4.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10509-014-2111-8
5.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150407/ncomms7491/full/ncomms7491.html
6.
Transactions
of the International Astronomical Union Volume XXIIA (1993)
7.
Transactions
of the International Astronomical Union Volume XXIIIA (1996)
8.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1989ApJ...337..568L
9.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1990ApJ...363..718L
10. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JA009390/pdf
11. Hindawi Advances in Astronomy, http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/2012/126516/
12. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/metfib.htm.
13. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Doc4.HTM)